Friday, September 2, 2016

It's Natural To Have Disappointments

Good morning folks, 
For the Pro members of Alpha Wolf Trading, yesterday was a very good day. We were anticipating a snap back play in the miner ETF's and that is exactly what we had yesterday after the weak ISM and Auto sales numbers. The dollar pulled back from potential price resistance while gold and the miners bounced. Another area we were expecting to see some action in was the financials after the run they have had recently in anticipation of a September rate hike. In the daily market wrap I suggested that the move in financials may be premature and we could be looking at a pullback if economic data starts coming in that may not support a Fed rate hike. Yesterday that data started to surface and we had a good game plan for what to do if that happened. 

Oil pulled back taking the energy sector with it. However, we could be at an area of potential price support and we may see a bounce in the energy names if it can hold. We get the rig count later today and we have some positive comments from Russia and Saudi Arabia this morning about potential consensus among opec members for a production cap. 

The IBB & healthcare have been weak and they are the most concerning as they continue to struggle. Hilary Clinton's campaign is proposing a consumer response team to monitor drug price hikes. That could put even more pressure on the two sectors. 

Retail and consumer discretionary are both struggling, with the former being the weakest of the two sectors. LULU earnings disappointed the street after the close and that could keep the sector under pressure.  

The IWM, SPY and NASDAQ looked like they were going to roll over yesterday but managed to bounce back towards the end of the day. We are still in consolidation mode and unless we get a really surprising jobs number that no one saw coming we could continue that action leading into the actual Fed decision later this month. 

The one sector that continues to impress is the SMH. Semiconductors have been holding up incredibly well and without any doubt it is the strongest looking sector out there currently. Regardless, if the overall market rolls over and the bears take control even the strongest sectors will eventually give in to the pressure and be taken down with everything else. 

The markets are basically flat ahead of the employment number and unless something dramatic happens it could remain flat and choppy heading into the long holiday weekend. 

We have the Fed, G20 and OPEC meetings coming up so even if the markets don't react to the jobs number there are plenty of other potential catalysts ahead for us.

Today's Markets 
In Asia, Japan flat at 16925. Hong Kong +0.5% to 23266. China +0.1% to 3067. India+0.4% to 28532.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.1%. Paris +1.1%. Frankfurt +0.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +0.9% to $43.56. Gold-0.1% to $1315.40.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 1.59%
Today's Economic Calendar

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*PR = Press Release

MGT pr after the close its a crazy little high risk stock but could get some action

SWHC earnings crush testing a 30 roll nice looking daily tends to pop and drop off of earnings so be careful don't chase 

TWLO daily looking pretty hot worth watching> if it takes out 57 with conviction could go test 60

CY something going on there lots of call activity over last couple days with rumors of acquisition flirting with a 12 roll  in the right sector  

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The stocks discussed in this week's Ticker Tv are listed below

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