Wednesday, May 11, 2016

How High Will We Go?

Good morning folks 
We had an impressive bounce yesterday and the breadth of the sectors that rallied were broad. Gold, oil and the dollar were all up on the day. Tech, small cap, biotech, home builders, financials, aerospace and defense, you name it an the sector was likely up on the day. The only sector that sticks out in my mind of being down after doing my scans was Solar. 

After the close DIS dropped a bomb with a fairly significant miss on earnings and that will likely impact the markets in some way this morning. I love DIS for a long term hold but I am in no hurry to get involved with the stock. If the overall market weakens and fear takes hold again DIS will likely get to some very attractive entry levels.

A Federal judge blocked the merger between SPLS and ODP sending the shares of each company lower. After the decision SPLS announced they will be closing a minimum of 50 stores and that the will have to pay ODP a 250 million break up fee.

The dollar is showing some weakness premarket while the markets are also showing some weakness. Gold and the gold miners are showing some strength premarket. Goldman Sachs is calling the near term bottom for the dollar and suggesting it is headed north. If that happens we would likely see Gold and the miners move in the opposite direction. 

TSLA issued a warning on their production risk that lie ahead. The stock could be under more pressure and could go test the 200 mark for support.

We get some retail chains reporting numbers today and that will also help sett the tone for today's market action. 

I came into the week with a fairly bearish view on the markets and even after yesterdays move that really hasn't changed. I am still heavy in cash and patiently waiting for my ideal setups. Even though we had such a nice move in the markets I missed my ideal entries on trades and wound up not participating in the rally. That happens from time to time but it won't make me change the style that works best for me. 

I have found that patience is a huge advantage in this industry and making quick knee jerk decisions can often do more harm than good. I always keep it in my mind that this is a journey and not a race. I may have missed an opportunity yesterday and I may miss one today but that is just part of the job. I will never get them all and that really isn't my goal. My goal is to be a constantly profitable trader and end my week with more than I started with. If  I achieve that goal it doesn't matter if I did it by taking 50 trades in the week or 5 trades in a week. It makes no difference to me because I all I care about is the end result. 

Today's Markets 
In Asia, Japan +0.1% to 16579. Hong Kong -1.2% to 20007. China +0.2% to 2837. India-0.7% to 25597.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris -1%. Frankfurt -0.8%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude -1% to $44.23. Gold+0.8% to $1274.50.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.75%
Today's Economic Calendar

ETF's on my Radar 
Volatility & SPY                                     OIL                                                  Biotech
 Gold                                SILVER         Dollar                                Financials
GLD NUGT JNUG           USLV          UUP                                 FAS XLF FAZ

Minerals and Miners                   Utilities           RETAIL                    Transportation              
XME GDX GDXJ                      XLU             XRT                         IYT  XTN

Stocks on my Radar Pre market 
CHK AND CLF potential bounce continuation plays 
SYNC potential continuation after earnings 
AMAT POT MOS CF all potential bounce play continuations 
WEN earnings beat and raise nice looking daily
CSIQ Not a great sector to play in but nice earnings beat and raise gapping premarket 
WYY small cyber security play strong earnings could get a 1 dolla holla test and roll 

Stocks in this weeks stocks to watch video below