Tuesday, May 17, 2016

6 Truths About Time

Good morning folks, 
I wanted to post something about time this morning. Someone asked me yesterday as the market was ripping if I was still bearish on the market. I supposes after watching my weekend videos it was fairly clear that I had both technical and fundamental concerns about the markets. I laid out my concerns in the market wrap video and stated that I am bearish. Unfortunately if you only watched that and not the Stocks to watch Ticker TV video you would have missed the fact that I thought there was a good chance we may see a bounce in the IBB. 

The awesome thing about time is it has a tendency to make both bulls and bears right and wrong. I can come into the week with a particular thesis on the market but that doesn't mean I will be right about the timing of when it will actually develop. Quite frankly, it may never develop. 

The one constant with time, is that everything is always changing and it is up to us to adjust with the change. At the end of my video I emphasized not to go into the week with any preconceived notion of exactly what is going to happen. There is no way we can know what is going to happen with any certainty. 

I may be bearish and see reasons to have cause for concern but that doesn't mean that the market is going to collapse because I have those concerns. The market is an untamed beast that will often do the exact opposite of what you think should happen. Yesterday the areas that we identified as potential support were used as springboards to send the markets higher. 

The news flow about Buffet buying shares of AAPL, the Goldman Sachs upgrade on oil as well as some merger activity in the pharma/ biotech space gave us a nice lift off of Fridays lows. Today the news flow could be dramatically different and give the market a reason to come crashing below those areas of potential support.

While I do the videos to try and help others and give them a glimpse of what I am looking at. It is important to remember that I do not have a crystal ball and I will be wrong about my thesis at times and other times my thesis may play out exactly as anticipated.

I am constantly changing and adjusting to the markets regardless of what my perception may be. If I don't feel right about a position or I miss a move >I don't stress about it. I wait patiently for my setup. I look for a new opportunity that provides me a good risk reward and try to take advantage of it. Time is valuable and instead of trying to fight the change that comes with time I do my best to adapt and its my hope that you will do the same. 

This morning we are seeing oil pull back a bit after yesterdays rise and it should not be a big surprise that I identified several good looking setups in the oil sector during my scans last night. If oil can manage to put together another strong day we could see some nice action in the sector. Gold and miners are on every bulls radar and after consolidating a bit both could be ready to take a next leg up. As always, keep an eye on the dollar which weakened just a tad yesterday. My biggest concern with gold and the sector is the amount of bulls in the space. It seems like I can't go 10 minutes without reading, hearing or watching something bullish about gold there is definitely no shortage of bulls.

Agriculture ETF's are still grabbing my attention while the IBB and Aerospace defense sector both had nice bounces yesterday. This morning HD beat on earnings and that could potentially give us a little lift in the home builder and retail stocks. We also get the home building report and CPI this morning before the market and that could also help set the tone for the day. 

Today's Markets 
In Asia, Japan +1.1% to 16653. Hong Kong +1.2% to 20119. China -0.3% to 2844. India+0.4% to 25774.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.6%. Paris +0.4%. Frankfurt +0.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude +0.2% to $47.79. Gold-0.1% to $1272.60.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 1.76%
Today's Economic Calendar

ETF's on my Radar 

Volatility                                                         OIL                                                Biotech
 Gold                                SILVER         Dollar                                Financials
GLD NUGT JNUG           USLV             UUP                                 FAS XLF FAZ

Minerals and Miners                   Utilities           RETAIL                    Transportation              
XME GDX GDXJ                      XLU             XRT                         IYT  XTN
Agriculture                                  SPY 
DBA, DAG                           SPXS SPXL

VRX ENDP HZNP could all be in play Citron will be on CNBC to talk about LONG Position in VRX Full disclosure I took a swing yesterday
CVGI upgrade active premarket potential 3 roll full disclosure own lottos in swing account
SGYP active premarket off Paulson disclosure of position
HTZ Insider buying disclosed could be in a decent bounce spot 
VG insider buys potential continuation move 
GSAT Greenlight capital reports a new stake potential 3 roll 
CHK and CLF potential bounce plays 
BCEI potential 4 test and roll 
SDRL and ORIG like the daily setups 

Stocks that are in this weeks Stocks to watch Ticker Tv session and their performance