Friday, June 21, 2013

Beware of the dead cat bounce!!

So this message is more for the swing traders than the day traders.The last two days were pretty rough with the markets being down over 500 points. We are showing green in the Pre market and there is talk out there of buying the dip and while my day trade personality agrees, my swing personality does not. Its my belief that the overall trend is in correction mode and I feel like we will see some lower prices coming our way. So if you are so inclined to start a swing position in something make it small and scale in. If something fundamentally changes in a stock you are already swinging DO NOT HESITATE to part ways take your loss and move on to the next winner. Losses are part of the game and everyone has them. Anyone who tells you they don't is full of well, > you know what! Do not hold and hope especially in a weak overall market if the story changes on your swing stock and its something fundamental.
I did this last night post market, I started to build a small position in $IDIX earlier this week and I bought it at $5.35 I liked the daily chart on it and wanted a little exposure. However, I also knew it was a biotech and that it could be a widow maker. So it was a very small starter I am talking 200 shares. After the close, $IDIX had an FDA decision that was not in their favor. I did not hesitate I sold the shares post market for 3.75 a share that may sound pretty bad but its better than selling it @ the 3.38 cents its trading @  in pre market. It was a gamble and I treated it as such I bought a very small position and when it went against me I bailed without hesitation. I am not concerned about the loss and I will find something to trade today that will erase it. More importantly, I don't have to sit and watch $IDIX hoping it bounces so I can get my money back the trade is done, over, finished and I can spend my time finding the next winner.
I expect today we will have a bounce but that is all I think it will be and with that in mind I have no intention of adding any swing positions. I will be sticking with what I have and day trading. Full disclosure, I may add to to a swing that I already own  if the fundamentals haven't changed and the price action suggests it has found support.

Morning movers and stocks that caught my eye
$ACAD like how well it held up yesterday, $APRI pr, $UQM I like the daily, look for volume, $TVIX if things get hairy again, $IMMU nice daily, $CAMP strong yesterday, $OTIV continuation, $CTIC, $OCLR looks interesting, $SGOC, $CAAS pr decent daily but very thin and a china play 

Yahoo in play
Other news: IDIX -25.9% (announces FDA has requested additional preclinical safety information for its lead prodrug candidate IDX209603; anticipates delay in initiating clinical program; several analyst downgrades), ENZ -5.7% (FST will replace ENZ in the S&P SmallCap 600), AHT -3.5% (prices 11 mln shares of common stock $12.00 per share), RBS -3.2% (looking around for catalyst), GFI -2.8% (still checking), ACRE -1.9% (prices 18 mln common share offering at $13.50 per share ), HLSS -0.7% (files for 12.5 mln share common stock offering), .
Analyst comments: ZNGA -1.7% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley), QCOR -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill, assumes with an Outperform (from perform) at Oppenheimer).

Other news: WILN +14.1% (Wi-LAN and Samsung have entered into a broad long-term license renewal to WiLAN's patents for Samsung's wireless mobile products and networking infrastructure equipment), BEP +7.1% (announces postponement of proposed offering), ORMP +5.2% (announces withdrawal of proposed underwritten public offering), MTL +5.2% (still checking), AMRN +4.8% (Amarin announces positive results of phase 1 clinical trial measuring the bioavailability of a fixed-dose combination of Vascepa and a statin compared to concomitant administration), FIVE +4.3% (postpones its proposed secondary offering due to current capital market conditions), WMC +4.2% (cuts Q2 dividend to $0.90 from $0.95 in prior quarter), DEO +2.7% and BUD +2.2% (still checking), TESO +2.2% (TESO will replace CHG in the S&P SmallCap 600), UN +2% (still checking), SD +1.9% (New CEO expects fiscal discipline; not planning on selling the company, according to reports), TSLA +1.8% (Blooomberg discusses new TSLA battery charging system that has faster speeds ).


Analyst comments: VIPS +5.9% (ticking higher, initiated with a Buy at Citigroup),FB +2.5% ( upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), FRX +2.2% (ticking higher, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), FB +2.1% (Facebook upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), SO +1.2% (light volume, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup) VIPS +5.9% (ticking higher, initiated with a Buy at Citigroup),FB +2.5% ( upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), FRX +2.2% (ticking higher, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), FB +2.1% (Facebook upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), SO +1.2% (light volume, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)
 

Seeking Alpha
Today's Markets:
In Asia, Japan +1.7% to 13230. Hong Kong -0.6% to 20263. China -0.5% to 2073. India flat at 18774.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.9%. Paris +0.6%. Frankfurt +0.5%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.6%. S&P +0.7%. Nasdaq +0.6%. Crude +0.3% to $94.63. Gold +0.5% to $1293.10.
Today's economic calendar:
No events scheduled.
Notable earnings before today's open: KMXDRI

Briefing.com

Page One
09:00 ET Market Trying to Recover from Hit with Ugly Stick: The market's response on Wednesday to the FOMC decision and Fed Chairman Bernanke's press
>> Go to full Page One
Story Stocks®
08:12 ET Western Asset shares rise 4% despite dividend cut (WMC) : Western Asset Mortgage (WMC $18.00 +0.72) announced it cut its second quarter dividend to $0.90
08:08 ET Idenix Pharma shares plunge 35% FDA request for additional information on IDX20963 (IDIX) : Idenix Pharma (IDIX 3.30 -1.83) announced that it has received verbal communication from the FDA
Earlier today on Story Stocks:
Wi-Lan shares soar after hours following Samsung license renewal (WILN) 07:58
>> For all of today's stories, go to Story Stocks
Up/Downgrades
Today's Upgrades:
CompanyTickerBrokerage Firm
LennarLENSusquehanna
Methode ElectronicsMEIRobert W. Baird
BT Group plcBTCitigroup
NETGEARNTGRWedbush
Forest LabsFRXGoldman
SVB Financial GroupSIVBKeefe Bruyette
Total SystemTSSWells Fargo
SouthernSOCitigroup
Brown-FormanBF.AMorgan Stanley
Today's Downgrades:
CompanyTickerBrokerage Firm
ITT EducationalESIArgus
Whiting USA Trust IIWHZRobert W. Baird
Enduro Royalty TrustNDRORobert W. Baird
Pacific Coast Oil TrustROYTRobert W. Baird
Idenix PharmaIDIXRobert W. Baird
C.H. RobinsonCHRWGoldman
AllerganAGNGoldman
SPX CorpSPWCitigroup
Idenix PharmaIDIXJMP Securities
Validus HoldingsVRCredit Suisse
Fulton FinclFULTCredit Suisse
Questcor PharmaQCORBofA/Merrill
Idenix PharmaIDIXJP Morgan

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