Tuesday, March 8, 2016

How High Do you Bounce?

Good morning folks, 
Yesterday was a bit choppy as energy /oil names remained the place to be if you were looking for some quick hit trading opportunities. The biotech sector also provided some nice action as the markets took a pause to consolidate. We talked about how overbought the markets are in last weeks market wrap video but this does not mean the markets wont go higher or that we have to see an immediate collapse. We could just consolidate and work the over bought condition off through time. 

My biggest concern is the quality of the names that are ripping higher and its pretty clear that this is a dash for trash. The names making the biggest moves are the companies that are in real danger of potentially going into default. The scary thing about theses low quality name runs is that nobody knows how long this squeeze will last. 

Everyone knows they are garbage stocks and the shorts try to anticipate the top of their run so they can sort them into oblivion and send the longs running for the hills. While the longs continue to push the prices higher in the hopes that the shorts will hit their tolerance threshold and cave. It becomes an epic battle between who has more conviction in the trade and it can be exciting to take part in the action. You just don't want to be the one left holding the bag when when the battle comes to an abrupt end. 

High quality names like the FANG stocks are actually lagging the market. That is not unusual though since money tends to flow to whatever is hot right now. The FANG stocks are so 2015! 

Gold held up better than I though it would and it could just be consolidating before making a move higher. After yesterdays action it looks to me like we may just trade in a tight range heading into Mario Draghi's statement this week. Nobody knows what he will say or how the markets will react and as traders we need to keep our opinions and our bias flexible to be prepared for any outcome. 


Volatility & SPY                            OIL                                                  Biotech
UVXY XIV VXX TVIX SPXS     UWTI DWTI GUSH DRIP                     IBB LABU LABD       
 Gold                                                                  SILVER           Dollar      Financials
GLD NUGT JNUG DUST JDST GDX GDXJ  
       USLV          UUP      FAS XLF FAZ

Stocks on my radar premarket 
SUNE             PR don't chase 
TERP GLBL "                        "
SCMP earnings potential 14 roll and trendline break 
ORIG  pre earnings runner 
SCTY PR potential 25 test 



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