Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Will The Rally Continue?

Good morning folks, 
We had a nice follow through day in the markets yesterday even with the disappointing decision by OPEC that really doesn't amount to much. Oil actually pulled back and the stock market held its gains.It appears as though oil and the indexes are trying to decouple  KMI  which was no this weekends stocks to watch video had a nice small pop yesterday and it continued after the close with the disclosure of Warren Buffet and George Soros taking decent sized position in the beaten up pipeline operator.

Gold took a fairly substantial one day hit. We have earnings out of Newmont and Barrick after the close and that could set the tone for gold and the miners in the near term.We ran too far too fast and having a decent pullback to absorb the move makes sense. It does not mean we can't resume the trend higher. 

The IBB and IWM both had decent bounces yesterday however I would like to see a more convincing move out ot the biotech sector. We need a powerful rally in the sector if we are going to see any kind of a sustained short term rally in the overall markets. 

Like we talked about in this weekends videos cyber security stock had a nice bounce yesterday heading into Palo Alto earnings later this week. Do not overstay your welcome, make sure to scale out as their earnings approach. 

Gap up days are my least favorite type of trading environment. I prefer gap downs or flat opens that gain momentum throughout the day. We are looking like we could have another small gap up this morning.

I do find it interesting that the so called FANG stocks were not really that impressive yesterday. There appears to be some sector rotation at work here  as the big money begins to flow from what was leading into what has been beaten down. It doesn't mean there won't be more pain ahead for the beaten up sectors or that the FANG stock won't go higher. It just means we want to pay close attention to where the "SMART" money is going.

I am still in the bear camp long term. I continue to go through earnings transcripts and listen to earnings calls that indicate job cuts either taking place or on the horizon. That is a concerning trend and one that takes time to work through the system and show up in the economic numbers. 

When someone loses their job I don't think they immediately file unemployment. I think most people take a little time off,  work on their resume,  network with friends and family, explore what is out there and any potential job opportunities and then they start actively looking for a job. It isn't until they are unable to find a new job that they hit the unemployment line and they become part of the statistics.

However, counter trend rallies can last much longer than a couple of days. We could see a nice rally that lasts several weeks. Make sure that you lock in gains along the way.

Sometimes the best laid plans fail to materialize. I tried to get two trades off my watchlist and even though one of them hit my target entry I did not get a fill. It can be frustrating but in this type of market you need to stay disciplined. Stick to your trading plan and recognize that they aren't always going to work out exactly as you had hoped. 



ETF & ETN watchlist

Volatility                           Oil                                                      Biotech
UVXY XIV VXX TVIX     UWTI DWTI GUSH DRIP                     IBB LABU LABD       
 Gold                                                                  SILVER             Dollar      Financials
GLD NUGT JNUG DUST JDST  GDX GDXJ  
       USLV          UUP      FAS XLF FAZ

Stocks on my Radar Premarket 
SSNI earnings 
FLXN pr after the close big gapper don't chase 
KMI gapper look for a pull 
FCX potential continuation 
IDI 5 dolla roll 
RGLS GAPPER off Pr 
MDCO Earnings beat 30 dolla roll 
SHOP earnings beat and raise> JD in sympathy 
OCUL big gapper off pr and MS upgrade 
MGIC beat and raise decent looking daily


Stocks in this weeks Stocks to watch Video 

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