I don't know about you but I feel better after listening to the SOTU speech the POTUS delivered last night!!
I may be exaggerating just a tad !
Yesterdays action played out almost exactly as I had hoped it would with a head fake on the open and then a fade, followed by and end of the day bounce.
There were three things I was laser focused on. The first one was oil with the UWTI. The market has been following oils lead or should I say decline since the New Year began. With all the calls out there for 20 dollars a barrel it became pretty evident yesterday we were going to at least test breaking below 30 and get that 20 handle in oil and tag prices we have not seen in 12 years. We didn't stay there long but we did test it.
I actually went long a few UWTI just after that 30 test. DWTI had gotten parabolic on the daily and I felt we were due for a relief rally. We may go retest that level over the next few weeks or months, and if we do, we could get a severe waterfall decline and not just in oil and gas.
It will almost certainly bring the markets down with it as we see some major Oil and gas high profile names cutting dividends or announcing debt restructurings. However, lets worry about that bridge when it comes. For the near term I think we may have a rebound in the price action of oil.
The second thing I was focused on was volatility with UVXY XIV and TVIX. As we whipsawed around volatility did present some trading opportunities, though not as easy to play as they were the day before.
Earnings season has begun and the so called "earnings recession" (at least for now) doesn't appear to be as evident as many analysts are calling for. Earnings will be the driver of market action over the next several weeks and barring any unforeseen black swan events if the earnings and GUIDANCE come in better than what is largely anticipated then we will likely see some positive action in the overall indexes. There will be sectors that continue to struggle but there will also be some winners.
The FANG stocks performed well yesterday and could continue if the markets find their footing. Short term swings could work in some of the really beaten up names like DIS which has been beaten but seems to be holding at the psychological 100 level.
We still need to pay attention to the dollar strength as well as Gold. The action in the latter over the last couple of days has been surprising since volatility is supposed to be a measure of fear and the action in gold did not reflect that people were rushing into the perceived safety of the gold metal.
The feel of the market is very different. To me, its pretty clear we have temporarily shifted to the sell the rip mentality. The last two days we were green premarket, we opened green and then we faded with an EOD pop. We could see more of that type of action unless earnings and GUIDANCE give us reason to change that line of thinking.
I highlight guidance because that is what really matters. Strong earnings for the last quarter are great but that is what you did for me last quarter. What we really care about is what you are going to do for me next quarter.
Regardless of what the market does. Make sure you have a clear plan with a strong risk reward ratio. Don't trade out of boredom if you can't find the proper setup or if the market is working against you. Don't chase because of FOMO > Sitting on your hands isn't exciting but it can save you from making some costly mistakes.
I have noticed in the chat room that when people have a losing trade and I ask them what happened I get two answers I broke my rules or I didn't have a plan.
KNOW YOUR RISK REWARD, FOLLOW YOUR PLAN AND YOU CAN ACHIEVE YOUR DREAM!
Stocks on my radar premarket
Bullish and may have a swing or lottos in play
Cautiously optimistic
05:56:35am01/13/16
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CyberArk +13.60% Premarket @$43; Haaretz Reported CheckPoint in Talks to Acquire Co
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Nobilis Health beats by $0.10, beats on revs; completes previously announced financial restatement (HLTH) :
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.14 per share, $0.10 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.04; revenues rose 205.2% year/year to $52.5 mln vs the $50.1 mln Capital IQ Consensus. Total cases for the three months ended Sept 30, 2015 were 4,418, representing an increase of 2,769 cases or 168% from 1,649 cases in the prior corresponding 2014 period.Nobilis also announced that it has completed the Restatement Reports, which are in line with the information contained in its press release dated January 5, 2016. Restatement Reports are being filed in conjunction with the Form 10-Q for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2015.
5:31:43am01/07/16
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Nobilis Health Corp. Announces CEO Resignation, Names Harry Fleming New CEO
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small floater that has been on a steady decline > New CEO Decent earnings beat potential double bottom don't chase it Can be a pop and flopper
Still needs full FDA approval and they are likely going to need to raise cash soon so be careful >Gapping premarket
This is a carry over from yesterday still looking for snap back play had some new news this morning could be a catalyst
Watching to see if 6 holds as support bounced right off the anchor VWAP on the daily could get some follow through
09:23:16pm01/12/16
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Titan, Braeburn Pharmaceuticals Announce FDA Advisory Committee Recommends Approval of Probuphine to Treat Opioid Addiction
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3:55:34pm01/12/16
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InterCloud Releases Open Letter to Shareholders
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Chronic pop and flopper but could get a snap back and possibly a test of the dolla holla >pure lotto play so manage the trade and size accordingly
5:23:01pm01/12/16
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Scorpio Bulkers Inc Sells 338,436 At Average Price Of $4.64/Shares To Scorpio Services
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04:59:18pm01/11/16
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Evercore ISI Group Positive On SALT, Sees Co As 'best house in bad neighborhood', Sees Dry-Bulk Market Deteriorating
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08:03:19am01/13/16
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Energy Recovery Reports $6M Buyback Plan
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THC is on my radar for a potential long term hold or somewhat lengthy swing perfect bounce off of multi year support of 23.50 range if it takes that out then may have to reevaluate
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