Does Anyone Think The Fed Knows What They Are Doing?

Good morning folks,
I have not gotten the kind of fireworks I was anticipating this week.Nor have we gotten that powerful snap back rally that I was hoping for. We have been getting some decent one day bounces and then we give it all back the following day. 

Yesterday was interesting for a few reasons. Oil actually bounced on a bearish inventory number and it managed to close up on the day signalling that we may be establishing stabilization in crude. Until yesterday crude and the markets were in lockstep. After the extremely confusing Fed statement the markets sold off and actually looked very confused as we headed into the close. Did the market and oil decouple yesterday? 

The Fed statement seemed hawkish to some and dovish to others. We did not get a rate increase but we didn't get any indication that they were planning to scale back on their proposed 4 rate increases. Personally, I think the Fed has put themselves in a bit of a pickle. The data that is coming in is worse than expected but they have already started raising the rate and have announced their goals for the near term. Now if economic conditions worse they may have to back peddle and risk losing credibility. 

On the earnings front we are getting mixed results from some of the big hitters. 
AAPL disappointed while FB crushed it. We will get more big name earnings tonight after the close with Amazon, Amgen, and Microsoft followed by Google early next week. I have been saying that ultimately what really matter is earnings and the guidance is the most important piece. Only time will tell us how the earnings picture is going to shake out. 

Technically the action in the IBB was a bit concerning as we closed below a fairly key technical level. The rhetoric form both political parties and one attorney general has put pressure on the entire sector even with BIIB reporting good numbers. Unfortunately I don't see that letting up anytime soon as we move further into the election year. If I were one of these big biotech companies I would be afraid to report strong earnings since that could just put them in the cross-hairs of some eager attorney general or one of the politicians running to be the next POTUS. 

I have been fairly consistent since the beginning of the year suggesting that the place to be for short term trading has been in volatility and select ETF and ETN's. 

There may be some select names to trade off of earnings but if the market isn't cooperating it can make trading those names very challenging. So for me, at least for now, I will be continuing my strategy to focus on the following.

My focus ETF & ETN List
Volatility                            Oil                                             Biotech
UVXY XIV TVIX     UWTI DWTI GUSH DRIP                     IBB LABU LABD       
 Gold                                                                     Dollar 
GLD NUGT JNUG DUST JDST  GDX GDXJ              UUP 

Some earnings winners of interest 
PYPL BABA FB MITK GLOP BMY

PR release 
AA, EXEL, CYDY  NEOS INO
Today's Economic Calendar

8:30 Durable Goods
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
1:00 PM Results of $29B, 7-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

This weeks Watch List