Yesterday we had some nice opportunities off the open in a few oil names and then the volatility trades kicked in once again. Oil continues to be harbinger of the indexes and if you look at the financials there appears to be a real fear that the contagion of low oil pricing is spreading.
China's market tanked last night off of the renewed selloff in oil, concerns over capital outflows and caution heading into our Fed's monetary policy decision.
Earnings still matter and we talked about the fact that AAPL is big enough that their earnings could be the catalyst for the next significant move in the overall markets. Those earnings happen after the close today. The sentiment is extremely negative on AAPL and if they can surprise with a beat coupled with some upbeat guidance we have a chance to resume the action that we started to see in the markets at the end of last week.
Unfortunately, we have the Fed on Wednesday and that could also be a market moving event. If the Fed continues to push towards their goal of 4 rate hikes this year we will likely see more pressure on the indexes.
So what does all this mean? How do you take action when we have so many variables?
We remain in a quick hit type of market which is ideal for day traders while frustrating for swing traders and long term investors. We we need to stick with what has been working, and since the beginning of the year we narrowed our focus to volatility and oil. It remains a quick hit type of market which is ideal for day traders and frustrating for swing traders and long term investors. I am fairly confident that at the end of the week after the Fed all the big earnings have been released we will likely have a clearer picture and a more defined short term trend to trade. I can't yet say whether that will be a bullish snap back or a confirmation of a new bear market. Regardless, I am looking forward to potentially getting more clarity on where we are headed.
Today's Economic Calendar
FOMC meeting begins
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:45 PMI Services Index Flash
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
1:00 PM Results of $26B, 2-Year Note Auction
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:45 PMI Services Index Flash
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
1:00 PM Results of $26B, 2-Year Note Auction
I remain focused on UVXY TVIX XIV UWTI DWTI LABU LABD
The US dollar UUP and GLD are also on my radar.
A few stocks on my radar premarket
YRCW sympathy play on SWFT earnings
05:06:15pm01/25/16
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Adam Feuerstein @adamfeuerstein Tweet: $RLYP Veltassa DDI data should put docs at ease, marketing message cleaner. Will FDA amend label? Not sure, see what mgmt says tonight.
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7:30:25am01/26/16
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Cowen Comforted By Limted Impacted To RLYP From Boxed Warning, Pleased Veltessa's Early Launch Proceeding Smoothing
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6:31:04am01/26/16
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Immunogen To Recieve Milestone Payment with Initiation of Phase 2 Study
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I took swing in KOPN with the intent of holding it for the next couple of weeks unless my targets are hit or I get stopped out.
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